{"id":46406,"date":"2025-09-19T09:18:25","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T07:18:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025"},"modified":"2026-02-23T16:18:45","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T15:18:45","slug":"bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025","title":{"rendered":"Bulletin macro\u00e9conomique &#8211; ao\u00fbt\/septembre 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size\"><strong>R\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><em>Risques g\u00e9opolitiques<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Les conflits en Ukraine et \u00e0 Gaza persistent, et les tensions entre la Russie et l&rsquo;OTAN s&rsquo;intensifient.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Renforcement de l&rsquo;axe Chine-Russie-Inde en tant que bloc g\u00e9opolitique alternatif.<\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><em>Tensions sur la dette souveraine<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; La France et le Royaume-Uni affichent une augmentation des primes de risque due aux d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres budg\u00e9taires.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; La dette de la France d\u00e9passe 114 % du PIB, et le co\u00fbt des int\u00e9r\u00eats absorbe des ressources \u00e9quivalentes \u00e0 celles consacr\u00e9es \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense nationale.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Le Portugal et la Gr\u00e8ce maintiennent une reprise positive avec des signes d&rsquo;assainissement budg\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><em>Politique commerciale<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Les \u00c9tats-Unis et l&rsquo;UE ont sign\u00e9 un accord tarifaire (15 % sur la plupart des exportations europ\u00e9ennes, les secteurs strat\u00e9giques \u00e9tant exempt\u00e9s).<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; L&rsquo;accord entre l&rsquo;UE et le Mercosur ouvre la voie \u00e0 la lib\u00e9ralisation des \u00e9changes, ce qui devrait permettre d&rsquo;augmenter les exportations de l&rsquo;UE de 39 % et de cr\u00e9er 440 000 emplois.<\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><em>Produits de base<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Le p\u00e9trole poursuit sa baisse, les prix se situant dans une fourchette de 65 \u00e0 70 dollars le baril.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Les prix du gaz naturel sont stables, les r\u00e9serves europ\u00e9ennes atteignant des niveaux record (~74%).<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; M\u00e9taux : l&rsquo;or et l&rsquo;argent atteignent des sommets gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la demande de valeurs refuges ; le cuivre augmente en raison des restrictions de l&rsquo;offre.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Produits de base agricoles : tendance \u00e0 la baisse pour les c\u00e9r\u00e9ales, niveaux records pour les huiles v\u00e9g\u00e9tales, reprise marginale pour le sucre.<\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><em>Politique mon\u00e9taire et monnaies<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; La BCE interrompt les r\u00e9ductions \u00e0 2 % alors que l&rsquo;inflation se stabilise \u00e0 2,1 %.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Il est fort probable que la Fed r\u00e9duise ses taux en septembre \u00e0 la suite des faibles donn\u00e9es sur l&#8217;emploi (+22 000 emplois en ao\u00fbt).<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; L&rsquo;euro s&rsquo;est renforc\u00e9 pour atteindre 1,17 dollar, soit une hausse de 13 % en 2025.<\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><em>Perspectives \u00e9conomiques<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; \u00c9tats-Unis : rebond technique (+3,3% au T2), mais sur des bases fragiles ; pr\u00e9visions 2025 : 1,4-1,7%.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Chine : croissance proche de 5 %, m\u00eame si les risques de d\u00e9flation persistent.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Allemagne et France : stagnation, avec une croissance pr\u00e9vue de 0,2 % et 0,6 % en 2025.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Espagne : croissance robuste de 2,8 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, bien que les risques fiscaux et les tensions sur le march\u00e9 du logement s&rsquo;aggravent.<\/p>\n\n<p>&#8211; Portugal : croissance de 1,9% au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, avec des pr\u00e9visions de 2,0% en 2025.<\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>R\u00e9sum\u00e9 Risques g\u00e9opolitiques &#8211; Les conflits en Ukraine et \u00e0 Gaza persistent, et les tensions entre la Russie et l&rsquo;OTAN s&rsquo;intensifient. &#8211; Renforcement de l&rsquo;axe Chine-Russie-Inde en tant que bloc g\u00e9opolitique alternatif. Tensions sur la dette souveraine &#8211; La France et le Royaume-Uni affichent une augmentation des primes de risque due aux d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres budg\u00e9taires. &#8211; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-46406","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bulletin macro\u00e9conomique - ao\u00fbt\/septembre 2025 - EthiFinance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Retrouvez toutes les actualit\u00e9s Macro\u00e9conomique dans notre bulletin du mois d&#039;Ao\u00fbt et du mois de Septembre 2025.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bulletin macro\u00e9conomique - ao\u00fbt\/septembre 2025 - EthiFinance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Retrouvez toutes les actualit\u00e9s Macro\u00e9conomique dans notre bulletin du mois d&#039;Ao\u00fbt et du mois de Septembre 2025.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EthiFinance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-23T15:18:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025\",\"name\":\"Bulletin macro\u00e9conomique - ao\u00fbt\/septembre 2025 - EthiFinance\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-09-19T07:18:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-23T15:18:45+00:00\",\"description\":\"Retrouvez toutes les actualit\u00e9s Macro\u00e9conomique dans notre bulletin du mois d'Ao\u00fbt et du mois de Septembre 2025.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/?news=bulletin-macroeconomique-aout-septembre-2025#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Bulletin macro\u00e9conomique &#8211; 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