{"id":47312,"date":"2023-06-23T09:25:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-23T07:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/opinions\/evaluer-la-probabilite-de-ralentissements-economiques-une-approche-fondee-sur-lanalyse-des-schemas\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T16:50:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T15:50:21","slug":"probabilite-ralentissement-economique","status":"publish","type":"opinions","link":"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/opinions\/probabilite-ralentissement-economique\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9valuer la probabilit\u00e9 de ralentissements \u00e9conomiques : une approche fond\u00e9e sur l\u2019analyse des sch\u00e9mas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Dans le cadre de ses travaux de recherche, EthiFinance Analytics a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 une m\u00e9thode visant \u00e0 estimer la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 partir de donn\u00e9es macro-financi\u00e8res. \u00c0 titre d\u2019illustration, Elizabeth Zuniga, David Labeurthre et \u00c9douard Pineau ont appliqu\u00e9 cette approche pour analyser la probabilit\u00e9 de ralentissements \u00e9conomiques. <\/p>\n\n<p>Pour ce faire, l\u2019indicateur avanc\u00e9 est transform\u00e9 en une s\u00e9rie de huit \u00e9tats, d\u00e9finis \u00e0 chaque p\u00e9riode en fonction de l\u2019intensit\u00e9 des variations mensuelles pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes. Ces \u00e9tats sont ensuite interpr\u00e9tables, allant d\u2019une forte baisse \u00e0 une forte hausse. \u00c0 partir de ces \u00e9tats, les \u00e9v\u00e9nements sont d\u00e9finis comme des s\u00e9quences d\u2019\u00e9tats cons\u00e9cutifs. Il devient alors possible de calculer une probabilit\u00e9 de ralentissement en comptant les cooccurrences entre un \u00e9v\u00e9nement et un ralentissement \u00e9conomique dans les six mois suivants, puis en divisant ce nombre par le total d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements observ\u00e9s.   <\/p>\n\n<p>Le signal obtenu montre que les sch\u00e9mas d\u2019intensit\u00e9 des variations successives contiennent de l\u2019information sur la position dans le cycle \u00e9conomique et permettent notamment d\u2019anticiper les ralentissements \u00e9conomiques.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans le cadre de ses travaux de recherche, EthiFinance Analytics a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 une m\u00e9thode visant \u00e0 estimer la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 partir de donn\u00e9es macro-financi\u00e8res. \u00c0 titre d\u2019illustration, Elizabeth Zuniga, David Labeurthre et \u00c9douard Pineau ont appliqu\u00e9 cette approche pour analyser la probabilit\u00e9 de ralentissements \u00e9conomiques. Pour ce faire, l\u2019indicateur avanc\u00e9 est transform\u00e9 en [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"class_list":["post-47312","opinions","type-opinions","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u00c9valuer la probabilit\u00e9 de ralentissements \u00e9conomiques : une approche fond\u00e9e sur l\u2019analyse des sch\u00e9mas - EthiFinance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"M\u00e9thode d\u2019EthiFinance pour estimer la probabilit\u00e9 de ralentissements \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 partir de sch\u00e9mas dans les donn\u00e9es macro-financi\u00e8res.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ethifinance.com\/fr\/opinions\/probabilite-ralentissement-economique\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c9valuer la probabilit\u00e9 de ralentissements \u00e9conomiques : une approche fond\u00e9e sur l\u2019analyse des sch\u00e9mas - 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