Global Macro Outlook February 2026 | Geopolitics and Energy Risks

The escalation in the Middle East following the United States and Israel’s strike on Iran, the continuation of thewar in Ukraine—now in its fourth year—and the expiry of the New START Treaty between Washington andMoscow together define a context of heightened strategic uncertainty. The increasing polarisation betweengeopolitical blocs and the weakening of nuclear arms control frameworks are raising the systemic component ofglobal risk.From an economic perspective, the primary transmission channel of these tensions is energy. Brent crude istrading at around USD 90 per barrel, having incorporated a risk premium associated with the Strait of Hormuz,while European gas prices have recorded double-digit increases. Although mitigating factors are present—including alternative export capacity within the Gulf and relatively elevated storage levels in Europe—aprolonged disruption would reintroduce inflationary pressures at a delicate juncture for advanced economies.

• Across other commodities, copper has stabilised following record highs, underpinned structurally byelectrification trends and constrained supply. Aluminium and nickel are consolidating at elevated levels,reflecting supply restrictions and demand linked to the energy transition. In precious metals, gold remainswithin the USD 5,200–5,400 per ounce range after an exceptional rally in 2025, continuing to function as ahedge against geopolitical and monetary risk. Agricultural markets display greater heterogeneity, with renewedupward pressure in wheat and soybeans, alongside marked corrections in cocoa.
• In parallel, the trade war has entered a new legal phase following the United States Supreme Court’scurtailment of the expansive use of executive powers in tariff policy. Nonetheless, the immediate activation of atemporary 10% global tariff confirms that there has been no substantive de-escalation.
• On the monetary front, the major central banks are in a phase of pause or fine-tuning. The European CentralBank is maintaining the deposit facility at around 2%, with inflation close to target and growth moderate. TheFederal Reserve is holding the federal funds rate within the 3.50–3.75% range, retaining a data-dependent biastowards further easing. The Bank of England signals additional gradual reductions, while, in contrast, the Bank ofJapan is proceeding with a measured normalisation, with the policy rate at 0.75%. Financial conditions reflectrelative stability: the euro is consolidating around USD 1.17, 12-month Euribor stands at 2.22%, and sovereignspreads in the euro area periphery remain contained.
• From a macroeconomic standpoint, growth remains moderate yet resilient. The United States has begun theyear with expanding activity (ISM manufacturing at 52.6 and housing starts at an annualised 1.48 million), arobust labour market, and continued indications of a soft landing, although leading indicators point to somemoderation ahead. In the euro area, GDP expanded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, with growthprojected at around 1.2% in 2026 and inflation already close to 2%. At country level, Spain led growth in thefourth quarter (+0.8% quarter-on-quarter), a relative outperformance expected to persist into 2026.