Macroeconomic trends and risks - January 2025

Our Chief Economist, Antonio Madera, shares his insights in the January 2025 Macro Bulletin, analyzing key economic trends and forecasts for the year ahead.

•Geopolitical risks: Trump's second term introduces trade and migration uncertainties; AI investments escalate the U.S.-China tech rivalry.

•Global conflicts: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire offers temporary relief; Ukraine faces escalating hostilities but the end of the war may not be far off.

•Commodities & Inflation: Rising energy, food, and metals prices pose inflation risks; gas supply constraints and oil price volatility persist.

•Monetary policy: The Fed pauses rate cuts amid inflationary pressures; the ECB and BoE continue easing cycles.

•Economic growth: Spain and Portugal outperform while France and Germany struggle with contraction.