General :
- The global economic outlook remains fragile due to the convergence of monetary policy, geopolitics, and international trade.
- The weakening of the US dollar provides partial relief for the global financial system._
- In fixed income, the Fed’s easing cycle is shaping a more benign environment for higher-quality sovereign and corporate issuers.
Geopolitical risks
- Ukraine: No Meaningful Progress Toward Peace
- Palestine: The Gaza Ceasefire Exposes the Fragility of the Trump Peace Framework
- Latin America: Could Venezuela Become the Beginning of a Wider Conflict?
- Trade War: A Period of Moderate Calm Following the US–China Rare Earths Agreement
Political Instability:
- From the US Government Shutdown to France’s Inability to Pass Fiscal Consolidation
Commodities :
- Oil: Our baseline points to a gradual moderation in prices.
- Electricity and Natural Gas: A more comfortable outlook, though AI-driven data centres introduce a new source of demand pressure.
- Metals
- Monetary policy, Interest rates & Currencies
Economic Outlook
- Germany
- France
- Spain
- Italy
- Portugal
