Macroeconomic trends and risks – January 2025

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Our Chief Economist, Antonio Madera, shares his insights in the January 2025 Macro Bulletin, analyzing key economic trends and forecasts for the year ahead.

• Geopolitical risks: Trump’s second term introduces trade and migration uncertainties; AI investments escalate the U.S.-China tech rivalry.

• Global conflicts: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire offers temporary relief; Ukraine faces escalating hostilities but the end of the war may not be far off.

• Commodities & Inflation: Rising energy, food, and metals prices pose inflation risks; gas supply constraints and oil price volatility persist.

• Monetary policy: The Fed pauses rate cuts amid inflationary pressures; the ECB and BoE continue easing cycles.

• Economic growth: Spain and Portugal outperform while France and Germany struggle with contraction.

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