REINO DE ESPAÑA
Type of ratings: Sovereign
Rating value: A-
Outlook: Stable
License: EthiFinance Ratings
Unsolicited
We affirm our credit rating on the Kingdom of Spain at A- with a Stable trend. Spain is the fourth largest economy in the European Union, with a population of 46.9 million and a GDP of EUR 1.4 trillion at year-end 2022. GDPpc stands at around EUR 27,000 at year-end 2022. Our confirmation of the rating is based on the progressive improvement in the macroeconomic profile of the Kingdom of Spain compared to our previous report (February 2023), with an upward revision of GDP growth forecasts to 2.1% for this year and 2% for 2024 and inflation that we expect to close 2023 at 3.2%, a figure that we nevertheless expect to be maintained in 2024 in view of the performance of core inflation. However, at Ethifinance Ratings we highlight the persistence of downside risks to economic performance that could end up having an impact on the rating: firstly, the maintenance of core inflation at levels that continue to justify the tightening of financial conditions in the euro area beyond the scenario we are currently contemplating (soft landing); and secondly, the persistence of parliamentary fragmentation that hinders both the visibility of the fiscal path for 2024 and the effective capacity of the new government to undertake the necessary structural reforms.
Ratings
Rating action: Affirmed
Action date: 2023-07-28
Date last rating: 2023-07-28
Date first rating: 2018-10-26
Methodology