Military intervention materializes in Venezuela, with risk of spillovers to neighboring countries
The direct military intervention by the United States in Venezuela represents an unprecedented rupture in Latin America, triggering a broad-based increase in perceived political risk across economies characterized by strategic resources and fragile institutional frameworks. At the same time, the controlled escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the protracted nature of the conflict in Ukraine, and the persistent fragility of the ceasefire in Gaza are shaping an environment of “unstable peace,” in which tail risks are becoming increasingly likely. The net result is a sustained rise in global uncertainty, with cumulative effects on investment, trade flows, and risk premia, even in the absence of large-scale open conflicts.
Tensions in metal prices—particularly copper—are amplifying input cost volatility at the start of 2026.
Oil and gas, by contrast, are acting as disinflationary anchors. Crude prices remain around USD 60 per barrel, reflecting ample supply conditions and demand that has become less sensitive to global growth dynamics. Meanwhile, natural gas prices in Europe have consolidated a deep normalization following the energy crisis, improving competitiveness and reducing inflation volatility. Against this backdrop, copper stands out as the main source of structural tension. Elevated prices are not the result of speculative episodes, but rather of a combination of low inventories, insufficient supply, and demand driven by electrification, digitalization, and rising defense expenditure. This divergence helps contain short-term inflationary pressures, but introduces medium- to long-term risks related to costs and strategic dependence.
Monetary policy continuity is the most likely scenario for 2026.
The disinflation process has allowed central banks to conclude restrictive cycles and move toward easing or extended pauses, albeit in a cautious and highly data-dependent manner. The Federal Reserve and the ECB face their first meetings of the year with a broadly neutral bias, prioritizing incoming data on inflation and labor markets over explicit commitments to further rate cuts. The Bank of England maintains a prudent stance amid weak growth, while Japan remains the notable exception, continuing its normalization process after decades of ultra-accommodative policy. In this environment, policy rates are stabilizing, the Euribor is consolidating at relatively low levels, and the US dollar shows a gradual depreciation trend against both the euro and the pound.
The global economy enters 2026 with low growth and pronounced cross-country divergences, with Spain and the United States expected to outperform.
The central scenario points to subdued but positive growth. The United States maintains a relatively solid trajectory; China faces a delicate balance between stimulus and financial stability; and the United Kingdom advances with very modest growth. Within the euro area, Germany remains the main source of weakness, France shows a gradual recovery constrained by political uncertainty, and Spain stands out as the most dynamic economy, albeit with a persistent inflation differential linked to electricity prices. Overall, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside—driven by trade, energy, and geopolitical factors—shaping a 2026 characterized by fragile stability rather than cyclical expansion.
